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Follow the seven rules for a Theory of Change

A good (=useful, thoughtful) Theory of Change is not that easy to put together. On the contrary, there are lots of not-so-good and bad Theories of Change. That’s a shame: it is a key element of Results Based Management.

In my experience, it is helpful to keep 7 principles in mind. In a nutshell: 1. repeat doing it until you get it right, 2. links are as important as expected changes, 3. risk and assumptions are key, 4. it must be scalable, 5. it is not a results chain, 6. organisations often already have ToCs in place which can’t be ignored, and 7. it has to be simple.

Let’s look at these principles in some more detail:

1. Repeat working on the Theory of Change

Repeat

Developing a Theory of Change is highly iterative. Review, change, and repeat until it upholds under intense, critical scrutiny. 

2. Links are important

Links

Causal links hold the Theory of Change together. They are equally important as desired changes (the ‘boxes’) – but more difficult to get right. Provide evidence of the underlying logic.

3. Risks and assumptions in the Theory of Change

Risks & assumptions

For each link, carefully select the relevant underlying assumptions (=that must be in place for A to result in B) and risks (=that would prevent A from resulting in B).  

4. Scale of the Theory of Change

Scale

A complete Theory of Change is scalable. We can extract only the upper layers as a stand-along theory – or we can select a sub-set (e.g. for a related project)

5. A Theory of Change is not a results chain

# results chain

A Theory of Change includes all changes needed to achieve the desired result. A result chain is the sub-set of the theory that an organisation chooses to address.  

6. Theory versus reality when working on the Theory of Change

Theory vs. reality

A Theory of Change includes all changes needed to achieve the desired result. Therefore, a result chain is the sub-set of the theory that an organisation chooses to address.  

7. Keep the it simple

Simple

Above all: keep it as simple as possible (and as complex as needed). Above a certain level of complexity, a Theory of Change loses its value. Then it does only one thing: Confuse everyone.


Do you want to see all 7 principles together? Here we go:

Diagram with seven principles of a Theory of Change

What to learn more about Theories of Change? Check out our blog post on Theories of Change: a step-by-step guide.